Trump Weighs Iran Options After Midterm Loss
Brent crude dropped below $95 as the president considers next moves in a conflict that cost Republicans their House majority.
By Marco Graham ·
President Donald Trump is assessing his next steps in the eight-month war with Iran following his Republican Party’s midterm defeat. The conflict, which contributed to Democratic gains, has left the administration weighing whether to escalate, de-escalate, or maintain its current military posture.
On Wednesday, Trump acknowledged the political cost of the war but defended his decision to launch it. He stated that the conflict drove gasoline prices up and agreed with Vice President JD Vance’s assessment that the war was a political setback. Despite this, Trump said he would repeat the same actions if given the chance, asserting that the strategic logic for the strikes has not changed.
Analysts identify three primary paths forward. David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state, suggested Trump might target Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility and then seek a limited agreement to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Alternatively, the president could order massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure, a move Brian Haggerty of Defense Priorities warned could be risky if voters view Trump as weakened. A third option involves maintaining defensive strikes and a naval blockade to restrict Iranian oil exports.
Market signals suggest investors do not expect immediate major escalation. Brent crude oil prices fell below $95 per barrel on Wednesday, hitting a two-month low. While oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed with U.S. Navy escorts, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels are attacking Saudi infrastructure and Yemeni civilians. A senior Yemeni government official urged Washington to avoid hasty decisions, noting that the threat from Iran and its proxies remains unchanged.
Regional officials report that the White House signaled Iran its bargaining power would decrease after the elections. Netanyahu pressed for renewed strikes during a weekend call, but Trump did not commit to action. Three Middle Eastern officials said administration diplomats privately suggested Trump might restart strikes because he has less to lose politically now. One official noted that the election results offered some optimism for mediators seeking a resolution.
Voter data indicates the war influenced but did not dominate the election. An AP Voter Poll of over 100,000 voters found that six in 10 believed the U.S. made the wrong decision in going to war. However, only one-third said the war was a key factor in their congressional vote, a lower share than those citing cost of living or corruption. Roughly 80% of voters who supported Republican House candidates said the war was the right decision.
Vance, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, blamed the war directly for the loss in a social media post. In contrast, Trump initially placed blame on his party’s candidates. Senator-elect Josh Turek of Iowa cited voter frustration with gas prices and the cost of living as a primary driver of the shift in support toward Democrats.
