640,000 Young Israelis Could Decide 12 Knesset Seats
With turnout rates predicted to far exceed US youth averages, this demographic holds the key to a potential shift in Israel's legislative balance.
By Amina Kaminski ·
An estimated 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote in Tuesday's election, a group that could determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, this cohort comprises nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their participation is expected to be high, with internal surveys indicating that 80% to 95% of these young Jewish and Arab voters plan to cast a ballot.
This projected engagement far outpaces recent trends in the United States. In the 2024 US presidential election, youth turnout was recorded at just 47% by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. In contrast, a separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of Israeli first-time voters are certain they will vote, while another 19% expect to participate. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that high birth rates and a young population make this demographic decisive.
For Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, the vote is a tool for political change. She is studying in an army preparation program in the Negev and plans to support one of the opposition parties in the change bloc. Chernyvsky cited the long tenure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has led the government since 2009 except for a brief period from 2021 to 2022. She expressed frustration with the current administration's handling of the war and its economic policies, specifically regarding funding for haredi communities that do not serve in the army.
Other young voters show similar levels of engagement but differ in their priorities. Omer Gross, 18, from Jerusalem, is voting for the Religious Zionist party despite disagreements with its leader, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, on Gaza policy. He supports the party's stance in the West Bank. In the same program in the Golan Heights, his friend Tomer Shiloh plans to vote for the change bloc, specifically for Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett. Shiloh wants the new government to mandate military service for haredi men and lower the cost of living.
Economic concerns dominate the platforms for many first-time voters. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, is voting for the left-of-center Democrats party due to the financial strain of higher education. He noted that many students must work while studying to cover tuition and housing costs. In Shef-Amra, Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, plans to vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and safety in Arab municipalities. Sabeh urged his peers to vote on October 27, stating that he wants to see change without leaving his home country.
A September 23 N12 poll found that 74% of young people identify as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. If the election had been held at that time, 16% would have voted for Eisenkot’s Yashar party and 14% for Netanyahu’s Likud. However, mock elections in high schools show a different dynamic, with many students supporting opposition parties like Yashar and Beyachad over Likud or the far-right party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir.
