640,000 First-Time Israelis Could Swing 12 Knesset Seats Tuesday

The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 will cast their first ballots in the election scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate and holds the potential to decide up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The institute warns that the outcome of the vote may hinge on the choices made by these new citizens.

Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that she intends to vote "so we can change the future of this country." She spoke at an event in Tel Aviv where politicians addressed more than 1,000 first-time voters, many of whom are in pre-military programs. Chernyvsky, who is training in the Negev, blames Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government for the nation's current issues. She plans to support either the Democrats or Yashar, both opposition parties seeking to remove Netanyahu from power. He has led the country since 2009, with a brief break in 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, stated that the institute co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. "Israel is a young country with a high birth rate," Hoffman said. "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference." The IDI surveyed prospective Jewish and Arab voters in May and found that 80% to 95% intend to vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents said they would vote. This compares with a 47% youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election.

A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents are certain they will vote, with another 19% thinking they will. In both surveys, national security and the cost of living ranked as the top priorities for Jewish and Arab voters. Hoffman noted that these young people experienced junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. "They are worried about their future," she said.

Political leanings among this group vary. Hoffman noted that Jewish Israeli voters have shifted rightward over the past two decades, though military service can sometimes shift views toward the center. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people describe their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% would vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Mock elections in high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, the party led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Individual voters display a range of priorities. Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to back the Religious Zionist party. He supports Bezalel Smotrich's West Bank policies despite disagreements over Gaza, stating, "We need a strong, secure Israel." Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzeliyah, will vote for the opposition change bloc to require ultra-Orthodox military service and lower living costs. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, cited economic factors such as tuition and housing costs as his reason for voting for the Democrats, while prioritizing universal service.

Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, is urging friends to vote for an Arab party that will address resource gaps and crime in his community. "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home," he said. Polling data indicates that while many young Israelis lean right, a substantial portion remains undecided or split between center-left and center-right options as they head to the polls.

The IDI continues to monitor voting intention through its research programs. The institute's data suggests that high turnout among this demographic could alter the balance of power in the Knesset. Parties are targeting these voters with specific platforms on security, economics, and social issues. The final results will determine how many of the 12 contested seats shift based on the preferences of these new citizens.