U.S.-Iran Conflict: Third War Phase Forecast After Nov. 3 Vote

Energy markets and consumer costs face potential disruption as experts predict the United States and Israel will restart military operations against Iran following the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable once the ballots are counted.

Citrinowicz expects the third round of fighting to target specific economic vulnerabilities. He identified Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and subsea internet lines beneath the Strait of Hormuz as primary objectives. He also noted that Iran might deploy its land army for limited attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, where U.S. bases are located, to inflict damage on the American economy.

The conflict has already strained global supply chains. Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have pushed up global energy costs. President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social on Thursday of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines.

Diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting have stalled. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks. Iran has demanded sanctions relief, reparations for damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War stated that vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington into meeting these demands.

The human toll of the two previous wars has been heavy. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The U.S. has lost 21 service members, and more than 70 Israelis have died. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Political factors in Israel and the U.S. are influencing military strategy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a close election in the coming days and has spoken of finishing the job against the Iranian regime. Citrinowicz suggested a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation could come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting soft economic sites such as airports.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy has been narrowed by U.S. maximalist aims. He stated that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if President Trump will approve it.