Latino support for Trump falls 20 points before midterms
Polls show a sharp drop in approval among the 36 million eligible Latino voters, with cost of living and immigration enforcement driving the shift.
By Larissa Shah ·
Latino support for President Donald Trump has fallen sharply in the final weeks before the November 3 elections.
Recent polling indicates that net unfavorable ratings for the president among Latino voters reached 42% in September 2026, down from 45% to 48% support in the 2024 election. Approval ratings now stand at 27%, a nearly 20-point decline that political strategists describe as unusual in modern politics. By October, only 26% of Hispanic respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said they planned to vote Republican.
The shift is driven by dissatisfaction with economic conditions and the administration's immigration tactics. BSPResearch, a political polling firm, found that the top three issues for Latino voters are cost of living and inflation, immigration and deportations, and jobs and wages. Mike Madrid, a former Republican strategist turned Independent, noted that the era of a predictable 75-25 Democratic lean among Latino voters is over. He argued that Latino voters are now swing voters who will not remain loyal to parties that ignore their economic and social concerns.
Turnout patterns in key regions reflect this changing dynamic. In South Texas counties along the Rio Grande Valley, more people voted in the Democratic primary earlier this year than voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election. State Rep. James Talarico, who secured strong support in these Latino-majority counties, now holds a polling lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. This surge in primary participation is a rare occurrence, as Latino voters typically turn out at lower rates in midterms than in presidential years.
The Democratic Party is also grappling with internal shifts. Candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America won key primaries in Los Angeles, New York, and Florida. In New York, Rep. Adriano Espaillat lost his seat to DSA challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier. In Florida, Angie Nixon, a state representative endorsed by the DSA, defeated retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman in the U.S. Senate primary. Matt Barreto, president of BSP Research, said the DSA's focus on child care and working-class economics resonates with younger Latino voters, even though a 2025 Pew Research survey found the label "socialist" remains unpopular in the community.
Republican officials downplay the polling decline. Ronnie Lucero of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly called the dip in support "slight" and pointed to the border security measures in New Mexico. Bettina Rodriguez, a Cuban American Republican in Florida, said the mood among Hispanic Republicans is more confident than national narratives suggest. She believes the administration has kept its promises on the economy and border security.
The administration's aggressive use of immigration enforcement has altered how voters view the issue. Federal agents are frequently deployed in large metropolitan areas with significant Latino populations. Images of armed officers making arrests in public spaces have contributed to the drop in approval. While immigration has historically ranked below economic issues like housing and healthcare, the visible presence of federal enforcement has pushed it to the top of the agenda for many Latino households.
