Polls show Democratic lead in redrawn Texas district despite border costs

Bobby Pulido currently leads the race for the redrawn Texas 15th congressional district by five or six points, according to recent polling. This result contradicts the Republican map advantage that grants the party an 18-point notional majority in the same seat. The district encompasses the Rio Grande Valley, a region that delivered record support for Donald Trump among Hispanic voters during the 2024 presidential election.

Surveys conducted since late summer indicate that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president. These voters favor Democratic candidates over Republicans by a wide margin. The shift occurs as midterm elections approach on November 3. Democrats aim to capitalize on this momentum, although Republicans remain competitive in several areas.

Local economic strain contributes to the change in voter sentiment. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and leader of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump in three previous elections. He plans to support a Democrat in November because the administration did not specify the extent of its border enforcement actions. An acquaintance of Guerrero runs a crew of 35 daily workers, but that number has dropped to four or six due to immigration crackdowns.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions have increased in Texas. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project shows the state accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026. This share is larger than any other state. Father Roy Snipes, a priest in the Rio Grande Valley, told about 30 worshippers at the La Lomita Catholic Chapel that there is no good excuse to detain and deport neighbors who are poor and law-abiding.

Republican officials acknowledge the challenge they face. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a difficult race but credits the administration with securing the border. He noted that most residents accept deporting criminals, but the process becomes problematic when it targets productive, law-abiding citizens. Tano Tijerina, a Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, stated that national political headwinds are real despite Trump breaking through barriers.

Voters cite the cost of living as a primary concern. Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices while attending a local avocado festival. Baldwin said the president is in control of their destiny and is not doing a very good job. Democratic candidate Pulido has focused his campaign on the economy rather than the national party brand. He told supporters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA."

The 15th district was redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans. Trump pushed for early redistricting in states like Texas, hoping to lock in the gains from the 2024 election. The area was once a busy border crossing point, with over 2.5 million apprehensions recorded in a single year under President Joe Biden. Border crossings have since fallen to their lowest level in decades. A swing back to Democrats in this district could potentially put a US Senate seat in play, a seat Republicans have held for more than 30 years.