Votel: Iran strikes buy time, not victory
The retired general argues that without a defined end state, fresh U.S. and Israeli attacks will deplete missile defenses before they force Tehran to the negotiating table.
By Marco Graham ·
A new wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran will likely weaken the country's military capabilities but will not end the war, retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel said. The former commander of U.S. Central Command spoke with NPR's Leila Fadel about the objectives behind a potential post-election bombing campaign.
Votel, who led Central Command from 2016 through 2019, now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. He noted that many likely targets have been hit previously and that Iran has demonstrated the ability to rebuild them. While strikes can punish Tehran and degrade specific capabilities, Votel said they have not yet changed the Iranian government's calculus on the direction of the conflict.
The general identified the primary requirement for success as a clear objective. Washington must define the end state and determine how it will declare the war finished. In Votel's view, that definition centers on the enrichment issue and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once that goal is set, military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure should all target that specific outcome.
Votel pointed to the financial front as the area showing the most visible progress. He cited reporting that Iran's ghost fleet has run out of oil, indicating that the blockade and sanctions are adding pressure. While that approach requires time, he said there is definite movement in that direction. He also noted that Iran is using proxies, including the Houthis, to create instability around the region, but described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.
The U.S. aims remain difficult to read, according to Votel. Much of the strategy centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz so oil and other commerce can move freely. He said this would help bring down gas and diesel prices at home. The second major concern is Iran's nuclear program. To bring Iran to the negotiating table, Votel stressed the need for a clear statement of objectives, coordinated use of national power tools, and the patience to see that approach through.
Asked about U.S. military readiness, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial and the ability to strike is not in question. The potential constraint is missile defense. He said earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on defensive interceptors that protect U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. Offensive capability is where it needs to be, he said, while defense may face a bit of a constraint.
