Drone Threats Shut Moscow Airports, Triggering Russia's Carpet Protocol
Ukraine's aerial campaign is halting flights for up to nine hours a day at four major Moscow airports.
By Larissa Shah ·
Russian aviation authorities are repeatedly closing the skies around Moscow, a safety measure triggered by Ukrainian drones that has shuttered four major airports for hours at a time since October began. According to the independent outlet Agentstvo, the Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo facilities have suspended operations almost daily, with some closures lasting as long as nine hours. The stoppages stem from Rosaviatsiya's so-called carpet protocol, which shuts down regional airspace immediately when weapons are used, aircraft violate airspace, or unidentified objects appear overhead.
The disruption follows a stated strategy from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Speaking in early September, he said Ukraine intends to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations, addressing airlines, insurers and travelers directly: "Russian airspace will become completely unsafe." Ukraine sent a corresponding warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the following day. Ukraine's own airspace has remained closed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, told DW that "essentially, every drone poses a military threat." He compared the disruption to the Houthi campaign in Yemen, which heavily restricted Saudi airspace, and noted Ukraine's military capabilities exceed those of the Houthis. Military analyst Jan Matvejev said triggering the carpet protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range, adding that Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily.
Both experts flagged risks to civilian aviation. Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the protocol, raising the danger of incidents like the December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines crash. Investigators say that aircraft was struck by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said Russia's air-defense protocol has changed little since then.
Matvejev also noted that drones need no explosives to cause harm, since a collision with an airliner can be severe. A drone flying from Ukraine to Moscow must be large, he said, "weighting dozens of kilograms." Russian air defenses are not fully effective against the threats, he added: "If it were possible to shoot them down, they would have done so by now."
Other airports have faced similar attacks. Ukrainian forces struck the Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris landed at Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has hit Ukrainian airports in return; Zelenskyy said in September that Kyiv's airport and Boryspil, near the capital, were targeted.
Whether foreign carriers continue serving Russia now hinges on three variables, Laneckij said: the military threat, passenger demand and insurance costs. Insurers that judge the danger as very high could raise premiums sharply, driving ticket prices up. Russia's aviation market has contracted as many airlines exited the business, leaving fewer seats on the remaining foreign carriers. "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced," he said.
