Senate control could take weeks to determine
Tight margins in seven states and ranked choice voting in two jurisdictions may delay final results, while House leadership likely becomes clear sooner.
By Amina Kaminski ·
The outcome of the Senate race may not be known for days or even weeks, while the balance of power in the House is expected to resolve more quickly. The difference stems from the margin of victory required. Control of the House likely will not hinge on a single seat, but the Senate could turn on one. Seven states feature particularly tight contests, and two of them use ranked choice voting, a process that extends the time needed to count ballots.
Polls close in stages across the country, with results beginning to arrive as early as 7 p.m. Eastern Time. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is projected to defeat Republican Representative Mike Collins for the Senate seat. The governor’s race in that state is much closer. Billionaire businessman Rick Jackson faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in what is described as one of the most competitive southern contests. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told local news outlets that new laws require counties to report results within one hour of polls closing.
South Carolina presents an unexpected tightness in its Senate race. Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, is competing against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. National polls label the contest a toss-up in the heavily Republican state, while the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the advantage.
At 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in North Carolina and Ohio. North Carolina’s Senate seat is considered the most likely flip for Democrats. Former Governor Roy Cooper runs against Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman. Democrats last won a Senate race in the state in 2008. In Ohio, Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. The state, once a swing zone, has become solidly Republican in the last decade.
By 8 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in more than half the country, including Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania. In Florida, incumbent Senator Ashley Moody is poised to win over Democratic state representative Angie Nixon. The state’s redrawn congressional maps will face their first test, with seven competitive House seats identified by the Cook Political Report. In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a tough challenge from Democratic candidate Troy Jackson. Maine is the only state where a Republican holds a Senate seat that was won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
Pennsylvania’s competitive House races have solidified in the final month. Three previously toss-up seats now lean toward Democrats. In New Hampshire, the gap between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and former Republican Senator John Sununu has widened, giving Pappas the edge in the Senate race.
At 9 p.m. Eastern Time, polls close in major states including Texas, Michigan, Iowa, and Kansas. In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico faces Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the governor’s race. In Michigan, the contest between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers remains a toss-up. In Iowa, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson runs against Democratic state representative Josh Turek for the open Senate seat.
Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern Time in Montana, Nevada, and Utah. Montana’s first congressional district features a toss-up House race between Democratic nominee Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo faces Democratic nominee Aaron Ford in a governor’s race considered a toss-up. The final batch of polls closes at 11 p.m. Eastern Time in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
