Ossoff likely to win Georgia seat while Senate control hangs on seven tight races
Vote counting begins Tuesday night, with the outcome of the chamber potentially decided by narrow margins in seven states and two ranked choice voting contests.
By Amina Kaminski ·
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is positioned to defeat Republican Representative Mike Collins in Georgia's Senate race. This outcome is likely to be confirmed early in the count. The governor's race in the state remains a tight contest between Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told local news outlets that new laws require counties to report results within one hour of polls closing.
Control of the House may become clear quickly due to larger voting margins. Control of the Senate could take days or weeks. Seven states are especially competitive for Senate seats. Two states use ranked choice voting, a method that can extend the time required to count ballots. The Senate race is likely to be decided by a single seat, unlike the House.
North Carolina and Ohio will provide early indicators of Senate control. In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper faces Michael Whatley, former Republican National Committee chairman. National polls suggest the seat is the most likely flip for Democrats. The last time Democrats won a Senate race in that state was 2008. In Ohio, Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. The state has shifted from a swing state to a solidly Republican one over the last decade.
Polls close in more than half the country at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Florida's governor's race favors Republican Byron Donalds over Democrat David Jolly. Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody is poised to win her re-election against state Representative Angie Nixon. Florida redrew its congressional maps ahead of this election. The Cook Political Report identifies seven competitive House seats in the state, including two toss-ups.
Pennsylvania has seen its competitive House races solidify in the last month. Three previous toss-ups now lean toward Democrats. In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a tough challenge from late-entry Democrat Troy Jackson. This is the only state won by Kamala Harris in 2024 where a Republican holds a Senate seat. Democrats view this as a key target for pickup.
Major poll closures occur at 9 p.m. Eastern Time in states including Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton for governor. A Democrat has not won a statewide office in the state since the early 1990s. Early voting data may give Talarico an initial lead. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton has made the Senate race against Republican Roger Marshall too close to call. The Trump brand is reportedly having less impact in the state than in the past.
Michigan's governor's race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has drawn significant media attention. Republicans ran ads featuring Islamophobic themes, while El-Sayed leaned into his personal story. The race remains a toss-up. In Iowa, Democratic state Representative Josh Turek competes against Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in an open Senate seat. Three of the state's four Republican-held congressional seats are competitive, with two leaning toward Democrats.
Polls close in the Mountain West at 10 p.m. Eastern Time. Montana's first congressional district features a toss-up race between Democrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. In Nevada, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo fights to keep his seat against Democrat Aaron Ford. The state has faced hard economic conditions. The race is considered a toss-up.
