Brent Crude Steadies at $115 as Tehran Declares Policy Fixed

Global energy markets faced a period of sustained volatility as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persisted into late October. On Monday, Brent crude held near $115 a barrel, maintaining the elevated levels seen earlier in the week.

The price stability followed a sharp spike in trading late last week. Supply concerns driven by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine pushed prices upward as the Northern Hemisphere entered winter. Winter typically increases demand for heating gas, creating a tighter market for oil suppliers.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the situation during a televised event in Tehran on Sunday. He stated that the prospect of renewed conflict had not altered his government's strategic calculations. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said. He noted that the United States and Israel had attempted similar actions twice previously and would see no different result.

U.S. President Donald Trump outlined his options in an interview with Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" on Sunday. He described his decision as choosing between ending the conflict or negotiating an agreement. "I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" he said. Trump previously suggested the U.S. might launch another "Epic Fury" operation, referring to the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that started on February 28.

Diplomatic efforts continued alongside military preparations. Esmaeil Baqaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry, said indirect contacts with the U.S. were ongoing through intermediaries. He added that the window for diplomacy remained open, even though direct talks had stalled for weeks. Speculation grew that Trump might order new strikes after the midterm elections scheduled for the following Tuesday.

Regional leaders gathered in Tehran on Monday to manage the escalation. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin were set to meet with Iranian officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the visit aimed to support de-escalation and mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan. These talks occurred after eight months of war in the region.

The U.K. navy's Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile on Friday. The impact disabled the vessel, though the crew remained safe. Iran claimed to have hit at least four tankers near the strait on Thursday, but those reports were not independently confirmed. Trump accused Tehran of fabricating such attacks to influence oil prices before the U.S. elections.

Violence continued in Yemen as the Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh. The coalition also destroyed two missile launchers in Sanaa. The Houthi group claimed it hit Riyadh's international airport with a missile shortly after flights resumed. The group also said it struck oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month had closed the airport for over two weeks, forcing Saudi Arabia to postpone its major investment conference until 2027.