70,000 Israelis Fly Home to Vote in Race Tied at 61-Seat Threshold

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in a national election that polling data suggests will leave no single leader with a clear mandate to rule. Exit polls are scheduled to release at 22:00 local time, though the final outcome may hinge on votes from hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists that will not be counted until Wednesday.

Friday polling indicates a near tie between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. However, projections show that neither their political alliances is on track to win the 61 seats required to form a majority government in the 120-seat Knesset. This arithmetic suggests weeks or months of negotiation may follow the vote, a pattern familiar to a country that has held five elections between 2019 and 2022.

The campaign focused heavily on security, with opposition figures citing the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that killed nearly 1,200 people and resulted in 251 hostages being taken to Gaza. Critics argued that Netanyahu’s government failed to anticipate the assault. Netanyahu resisted calls for an independent commission of inquiry, claiming it would be biased, and instead framed himself as the country's top security figure, citing his relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Eisenkot, who leads the newly formed Yashar Party, heads a coalition of parties united by their opposition to Netanyahu rather than shared ideology. This group includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, right-wing leader Avigdor Lieberman, and left-leaning former general Yair Golan. Netanyahu’s path to power depends on retaining his alliance with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history.

Two Arab party blocs are also in the race, representing roughly one-fifth of the population. While theoretically capable of acting as kingmakers, all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out formal partnerships with them. Lieberman has specifically ruled out participating in a minority government propped up by informal Arab support.

Controversies over judicial reform and military conscription also dominated the final days of campaigning. Netanyahu’s government has failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men in full-time religious study, a gap that has drawn criticism given the heavy reliance on other demographics for recent wars. Additionally, reports emerged that Netanyahu pushed for last-minute military action against Iran before the vote, a move opposed by his own military chief, Eyal Zamir, and reportedly refused by President Trump. Netanyahu denied both accounts.

In his final campaign post, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb striking Tel Aviv, warning that he is the only leader capable of protecting Israel if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. Eisenkot labeled the move hysterical. On the policy front, Eisenkot pledged to end Hamas rule in Gaza within 18 months, using either a US-led peace plan or military force if necessary.

The war in Gaza continues to shape the political landscape. Since the war began, the Israeli military has killed more than 74,000 people, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, a source the UN considers reliable. Israel has struck the territory almost daily since last year's ceasefire, claiming it targets Hamas operatives. International condemnation has grown, and relations with global allies have deteriorated.

Eisenkot supports settlements in the occupied West Bank, which international law deems illegal, but proposes cracking down on extremist Jewish settlers, whose attacks are at an all-time high per UN figures. He has suggested creating conditions for Palestinian autonomy or a state-minus arrangement under Israeli security control, a proposal that sits in contrast to the two-state solution, which has largely vanished from mainstream discourse.

An estimated 70,000 Israelis traveled from abroad to cast their ballots. As results begin to trickle in, Likud supporters will gather in Jerusalem while Yashar Party members assemble in Tel Aviv. The vote of soldiers and reservists, expected to lean right, may provide a late shift in the final count.