Lebanese Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah Weapons in New Poll

For many families in Lebanon's Shi'ite communities, the question of who holds the guns is becoming a central concern. A new survey suggests that a majority of these residents now want their weapons to be controlled by the state rather than by their traditional political ally. This shift could change how security is managed in areas that have seen heavy fighting in recent years.

The data comes from a poll conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon. The survey interviewed 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. The results show that 66.4% support handing over Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state. Only 29.6% believe the group should keep them. Hezbollah has long argued that its arsenal is necessary to defend Lebanon against Israel.

The poll also highlights a desire for centralized decision making. According to reports from Kataeb.org, 71.1% of respondents said that decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Just 5.9% believed Hezbollah leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. Trust in the national military remains strong, with 78.5% of respondents saying they trust the army. More than half named it the best institution for long-term security.

However, the mood is mixed regarding the group's performance. About 67.4% said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals or only partially achieved them in the war with Israel. Nearly 42% expressed disappointment or anger with the leadership. Despite this, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization. Analysts note that the group's social networks and status within the sect continue to sustain its strength, especially if no other entity fills the gap.

This finding contrasts with earlier data. A May 2026 survey cited by researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. That earlier poll suggested that differences in wording or agenda might shape results. The researchers argued that weakening the group requires a stronger army and financial support to replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Local signs of wariness are also emerging. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, fearing it might be targeted in an Israeli strike. Meanwhile, the group has announced aid of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed, with lower amounts elsewhere. After the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in 2024 and the new war in March 2026, whether discontent turns into political change depends on the state's ability to offer security and economic opportunity.