Iraq Suspects Israeli Strikes on Militia Arms Depots

Iraqi authorities believe Israel was behind recent strikes on two locations where Iran-backed militias had stored shoulder-fired air defense systems of Chinese origin, according to sources cited Saturday by the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. The weapons were reportedly supplied by Tehran. The report did not specify which system was involved, offered no evidence for its claims, and acknowledged that parts of the information could not be confirmed. One source said the armed group that chose the storage spot considered it very hard to reach or detect, and the suspected attack came soon after shipments arrived at both sites. The strikes were said to have taken place last week.

Asharq Al-Awsat also pointed to an explosion on October 17 at a base of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella body that includes many Iranian-backed militias and is also an Iraqi government paramilitary force. The PMF described the blast as an accident, and the Iraqi government promised an investigation. The newspaper reported that the blast hit a stockpile of obsolete ammunition at a headquarters in Baghdad's East Canal area, injuring five people. An anonymous Iraqi official said authorities were still looking into the circumstances, while the report noted that more than a week had passed with no update. Other sources said the mid-October blast followed an incident on October 1, when warehouses linked to Iran-backed groups in and around Baghdad were apparently affected, reportedly including stores of drones meant for suicide attacks and reconnaissance. A security official said Iraqi authorities had not determined the nature of the strikes but had seen enough evidence to believe Israel was behind them.

It would not be the first time Iraqis have pointed the finger at Israel. Iranian-backed militias blamed Israel for strikes in 2019 and for a strike in Albukamal, Syria, near the Iraqi border. In May, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had set up a secret airstrip in Iraq during the campaign against Iran. Asharq Al-Awsat also noted conflicting, unconfirmed accounts of Israeli fighter jets flying through Iraqi airspace near the Iranian border with the support of midair refuelers. The newspaper appeared to link earlier reports of China supplying weapons to Iran with the movement of the same systems to Iraq, but described that connection as unconfirmed. China's Foreign Ministry denied those reports on July 28.

Iran has armed Iraqi militias for years, including with missiles and drones capable of threatening Israel, and the groups carried out many attacks on Israel after Hamas began its war on October 7, 2023. Since the US and Israel began airstrikes in February, Iran has sought to turn Iraq into a frontline. It has carried out more than 1,000 strikes on the Kurdistan Region using drones and missiles, and Iran and allied militias have mounted 600 attacks across Iraq, some aimed at US diplomatic sites. The US withdrew its forces from Iraq on September 30, a deadline agreed with Baghdad over previous years, and has warned Americans against traveling to Baghdad. Separately, an Iran-backed militia attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline with a drone, reportedly from Iraq's Maysan province near the Iranian border. That crossing has since been closed amid US pressure and Iraqi concerns about trafficking.

Asharq Al-Awsat concluded that the strikes signal the start of a new round of conflict, though the original incidents date to early and mid-October. A source in the Shi'ite Coordination Framework said ruling party leaders had spent weeks predicting that renewed war between Washington and Tehran would begin with the total destruction of the Iraqi factions' capabilities. Most of the major groups in the PMF, apart from the Badr Organization, have been sanctioned by the US as terrorist organizations. Meanwhile, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a collection of militias that has attacked Israel and the US in the past, published a statement claiming Iraqi airspace was being violated.

The report raises questions about attribution in an environment where multiple actors have struck inside Iraq in recent months, and where the Iraqi government has not confirmed the nature of the October 1 incident or completed its investigation into the October 17 blast. The connection between Chinese-supplied weapons and the systems moved to Iraq also remains unverified.