Artemis Moon Plan: 22 Launches Now Required for Starship Depot

NASA has long guarded a specific number with intense secrecy, treating it with the same caution usually reserved for nuclear codes. This hidden metric determines the number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander in low-Earth orbit. The goal is to allow the vessel to travel to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit as part of the Artemis Program. The agency has historically avoided giving a precise answer, preferring to say that the exact figure is uncertain. However, recent developments suggest this number is no longer a mystery, and the updated estimate has raised significant concerns about the program's timeline.

The new figure is 22. This estimate emerged during the quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on Thursday. Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut and panel member, discussed the risks associated with the Artemis Program and the challenges of landing humans on the Moon. The number represents the total flights needed to fully load a depot Starship with liquid oxygen and methane propellant. This includes one depot launch and 21 tanker launches. The high count indicates that the rocket would need to fly more times than previously thought to achieve the necessary fuel levels for a lunar voyage.

This number has been a moving target for several years. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who was then the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, told Ars Technica that the agency had a general idea but was reluctant to specify the exact count. She later described the number as being in the high single digits to the low double digits. That earlier estimate suggested about a dozen launches. Other officials have even mentioned figures in the high teens. The consistent hope was that SpaceX would dramatically improve the lift capacity of the Starship rocket, which would reduce the number of tanker flights needed to fill the depot.

The shift to 22 launches signals that the expected improvements in lift capacity may not be arriving soon enough. Some NASA officials are now worried that this delay will prevent SpaceX’s Starship from playing a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon within this decade. The Artemis Program aims to land people on the Moon again, but the logistics of fueling the lander in orbit are proving more complex than anticipated. The increased number of launches adds to the complexity and risk of the mission. It also raises questions about whether the current timeline for human lunar landings is still realistic.

The stakes are high for NASA and SpaceX as they work to finalize the logistics for the lunar lander. The number of launches directly impacts the cost, schedule, and safety of the mission. Each additional flight adds to the operational burden and the potential for errors. The panel’s discussion highlights the growing tension between the ambitious goals of the Artemis Program and the practical realities of rocket performance. As the agency moves forward, it must decide whether to adjust its timeline or push for further improvements in Starship’s capabilities. The coming months will be critical in determining how the program adapts to this new reality.